Sunday, January 28, 2007

DOES ANYONE (IE- REAL VOTERS) CARE ABOUT POLITICIANS' ENDORSEMENTS?

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I wonder how many people make up their minds about who to vote for-- or contribute to-- based on endorsements from other politicians. Chris Cillizza And Shailagh Murray in today's Washington Post say the sheriff and state assemblyman might not matter but there are 3 Democrats and 3 Republicans that everyone is courting. Jeb Bush I understand, especially if-- as looks likely-- Florida moves its primary up to February 5 but South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford and Iowa far right extremist kook Steve King? That is just crazy.


Sanford already showed the value of his endorsement in 2000 when he gave McCain the nod, only to watch South Carolina turn into the graveyard of McCain's presidential pretensions of that year. And Steve King? Maybe as a contrary indicator. I mean even Republicans know that this guy is nuts. Even Republicans in Iowa's 5th CD. In fact, in 2002 and 2004 he garnered, respectively 62% and 63% of the vote. And that was 168,500 votes in 2004. This year he wound up with 58% of the vote (an 8% drop) and only 105,000 people showed up for him, the smallest number of votes of any congressional victor in Iowa this year. (Even newly elected Democrats Braley and Loebsack brought in, respectively 113,700 and 107,000.) His endorsement of fellow xenophobe Tom Tancredo isn't going to make one bit of difference to Tancredo's pointless, divisive, hate-filled campaign.

No mention of Swingin' Dick Cheney? Not even as an endorsement to be avoided at all costs. If he teams up with Lieberman they could make an impact on the GOP race... I guess.

And if Jeb is so important because Florida moving up their primary, what about Schwarzenegger? His expected endorsement of McCain will probably do McCain a lot more good than whatever Sanford or King can do in their states.

Now on the Democratic side, the Post is touting Ted Kennedy ("liberal icon"), South Carolina senior African American congressman/party machine boss Jim Clyburn and Jeanne Shaheen, an ex-governor who lost her race for the Senate. I doubt any of those endorsements will mean a great deal. Liberals, who might care what Kennedy has to say, aren't robots who take cues from politicians. Clyburn might bring Obama or Clinton some votes in South Carolina but with Florida and California (and New Jersey) with early primaries, South Carolina probably isn't going to do much for anyone's momentum, especially since everyone knows their electoral votes are going to either the Republican or to a further right independent, if it comes to that, before a Democrat, Clyburn Machine or no Clyburn Machine.

And as for Shaheen... if she jumps into the Senate race against Sununu, she's going to be pretty busy bringing all the supporters of all the Democratic presidential hopefuls together for herself. I don't see an endorsement that could hurt her among partisans of any of the candidates.

So whose endorsement would really mean something among Democrats? Speaker Pelosi (not going to happen) and Howard Dean (not going to happen) would be meaningful. Russ Feingold and Wes Clark have real national grassroots followings that are meaningful. Markos from Kos probably means more than most politicians. L.A. Mayor Antonio Villraigosa might have some sway in California and Jane just reminded me that-- assuming he doesn't run himself-- Al Gore has a devoted following which will care what he has to say.

Who else? You tell me.

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